Many people watch the Gallup and USAToday poll on wht daily changes there are in popular vote opinions, whihc are simply that, opinions. One day Obama is up by 6, then 8, then 10, now tied. It’s a lot of hype over nothing much. The real thing that one needs to remember (Government #101), is that the peson who wins the most electoral votes wins!
There’s no doubt that John McCain comes out of the Republican Convention with his base, his right wing, emboldened! Sarah Barracuda has done for him what his more independent persona could not. So, he has the momentum and with the expected “Convention bounce“, the race should be once again tied.
But the real race is not tied! 🙂
You see, it takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency, not a majority of the popular vote, not even a plurality ans Bill Clinton discovered in 1992. The latest Zogby poll on the electoral map is as follows:
>Obama (safe or leaning)……….260
>McCain ( ” ” ” )……….173
So, as you can see, it’s a BIG DIFFERENCE in who is ahead and who is currently winning. All of this will change, but it’s what needs to be looked at and not what the popular vote polls of registerd, likely to vote, or whatever category one wants to speak. The big one in the toss up category with 20% of that number is Ohio with 23 votes. One state, Indians (12) would give Obama the election.
Check out the electoral college vote and make a copy for yourself and watch these numbers for a true picture of who is winning. And watch where the candidates go to campaign. McCain wont spend any time in new York, except for a fund raiser as Obama won’t be spending any time in West Virginia (only 6 electoral votes) and it’s mainly a blue collar, working class, and all those other dynamics that don’t take a shine to Obama’s politics.